YOURSAY | Possible scenarios after purge in Umno

YOURSAY | ‘Ousted leaders might form a new party, won’t take it lying down’.

COMMENT | Anwar is Zahid’s biggest collateral damage

Siva1967: This is what I predict will take place after Friday night’s purge (of top Umno leaders). But first things first, the six state elections are not mid-term state elections.

All the state assemblies are reaching their full term since the 2018 elections. Best to be accurate to avoid confusion.

Ousted Umno leader Hishammuddin Hussein, sacked Khairy Jamaluddin (KJ) and Noh Omar are all career politicians. They are not going to take this sitting down.

They too are ultra-Malay, so sorry, Gerakan can forget about wooing KJ.

These are a few things that can take place:

1) Their first choice will be to join Bersatu since Bersatu is made up of all the sour grapes from Umno except for a few traitors from PKR.

But there is a slight hindrance, power brokers such as Bersatu leaders Faizal Azumu, Hamzah Zainudin, and Azmin Ali may feel threatened with so many popular characters within their midst.

So, joining Bersatu would not be welcomed with open arms by some.

2) They may try to woo some other federal government coalition parties, and one such party that comes to mind would be Warisan.

Since Warisan is trying hard to get a foothold in the peninsula and has not been successful in doing so, maybe these Umno heavyweights can change that for Warisan.

However, Hishammuddin, who is an MP for Sembrong, may have to go through the re-election process in view of the anti-hopping law.

3) All get together and form a new political party just like what Hishammuddin’s grandfather did, so did Gua Musang MP Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah (Semangat 46), Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim (PKR), as well as former PMs Dr Mahathir Mohamad (Pejuang) and Muhyiddin Yassin (Bersatu).

This is nothing new in Malaya/Malaysia since almost every Umno dropout has gone on to form new political parties and none succeeded to dethrone it until recently.

Here, Hishammuddin will need to undergo the re-election process to return to Parliament.

4) I do not believe either of them would join PAS because all the above are not “Islamic” enough to be members.

The most likely action will be item three above. It would be interesting to watch the drama unfolding.

Now that Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and his allies are in full control of Umno, their actions might have spooked the other detractors in Umno such as former PM Ismail Sabri Yaakob and the like.

Anwar’s position is secured until the state elections. Pakatan Harapan states must play the wait-and-see game and keep their cards close to their hearts.

Never reveal anything and keep everyone guessing as to when Harapan states will dissolve their state assemblies.

PAS and Bersatu can say or do anything they want and the best reaction from Harapan is no reaction.

I Am A Malaysian: It does not appear to me that any of the Umno leaders sacked or sidelined by Zahid’s team are truly charismatic or capable leaders.

However, it is not farfetched to deduce that their mid-level ranking supporters in Umno and/or voting supporters outside Umno are behind these said leaders.

They will be behind these leaders, not out of diehard respect for those said non-existent or mere minimal qualities, but as a matter of incidental betting on these now fallen-from-grace horses (whether to secure a spot in the gravy train track or a prospective chance to move up the party's hierarchy).

This is despite some of these ousted/sidelined Umno leaders themselves having serious scandal/trust deficit/corruption issues hanging like a sword over their own heads that might come slashing down on them now that the party-alignment immunity buffer of sorts is withdrawn.

I won’t be entirely surprised that the underlings/voters of Umno that political analyst Wong Chin Huat are worried about might cause the undoing of Zahid, and that his team might be seen rapidly falling behind the new leadership at the helm sooner than later instead of railing a revolt to implode Umno.

But Zahid’s team holds the key to the war chest without which there is no ammunition for those ousted to fight back.

OrangePanther1466: This is a fairly good piece by Wong. My take is that the suspended Umno leaders would opt to start up a new party and thus forcing several by-elections because of the anti-hopping law.

Better still, they should just apply to join Pejuang and thereby take control of it. After all, Mahathir and a few notables like Khairuddin Hassan have left the party.

Only Mukhriz Mahathir is there and he may welcome these people as he knows them well.

If all the suspended politicians manage to win the by-elections, Pejuang would become a seriously viable alternative for disgruntled Umno members to migrate to.

Hishammuddin and Ismail Sabri may have to reappraise their stand to align with Perikatan Nasional (PN) rather than Pakatan Harapan.

The ultra-Malay and Islamic agendas of PN do not sit well in the multi-racial Malaysia of today. Yes, Umno may well then take the path trodden by MCA.

Pejuang could then opt to remain in the opposition and support the government on a case-by-case basis. This may, in the long run, be better for the Anwar government.

Zahid’s influence and hold on the PM would be diluted and that can only be good for the PM. Let’s wait and see.

Reset: The analyst overlooked the fact that Hishammuddin has been the man behind all the political moves against Harapan and his own party, including those after the recent GE15.

Thus, the decision on his suspension is indeed the right decision to ensure the party stability which is important to the federal government too (at least for this term).

Khairy’s expulsion is however deemed too strong-handed although he did make comments that may tarnish the party’s image.

The expected outcome is expected as Hishammuddin and the gang will likely join PN due to their strong alliance with Muhyiddin and Azmin while Khairy will need to make his own decision if PKR will be his right home.

Having said that, the biggest challenge of the federal government is not about retaining the government in this full term but more on GE16 and the upcoming six state elections.

How to prevent the stir-up of Malay and Islamic sentiments by PN can be counterbalanced by an effective government led by Anwar especially addressing immediate hardship of the rakyat, retaining racial and religious harmony and good governance, while convincing Malays they are protected by the Constitution and the federal government.

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