COMMENT | Back to the past? Preliminary voting analysis of Johor polls

COMMENT | The results from Johor polls are in and Umno/BN has won over two-thirds of the seats, with the opposition politically marginalised in the Johor state assembly.

As the analysis of the results has started, the debate has focused on the fact that Umno/BN only managed to secure 43 percent of the overall vote in its decisive return to government. This outcome is common in first-past-the-post electoral systems, which favour those that win a plurality of votes in particular seats and exclude the representation of alternatives.

The discussion has, however, opened up the questions, whether Umno/BN has in fact increased its support and whether its victory was the product of opposition division rather than the strength of its own support. Has Umno returned to electoral safety?

A preliminary look at voting patterns comparing...