COMMENT | Simulation predicts 15,000 active Covid-19 cases in M'sia by Nov 8

COMMENT | We want to bring to your attention about a recent report in a local news portal regarding the predictions that 10,000 active cases will occur by Nov 4, 2020.

Our Covid-19 modelling group, which consists of several applied mathematicians, epidemiologists, public health specialists and a biostatistician from major public universities would like to offer an alternative view with regard to this prediction.

We made our analysis using a mathematical model of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Death (SIRD) type and calculated the trajectory of the active cases, which are predicted by the model till the end of this year (red curve); in comparison, we also plotted the actual active cases in Malaysia (blue curve) (see Figure A)...